Working papers

Household formation and tenure decisions among the 1958 birth cohort- CLS working paper 1995/3

The paper models the transition rates between the three main housing tenures in Britain. “Surprises” like partnership break-up, acquisition of a partner, and spells of unemployment are found to have large impacts on tenure changes. Through their effects on these transition rates, variation in the rate of arrival of such surprises affects the “equilbrium” housing tenure distribution of people. The transition rate models are estimated using two sources of longitudinal data: the first four waves of the British Household Panel Study (1991–1994) and data for the 1958 birth cohort from the National Child Development Study, covering their housing experiences from the ages of 16–33.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, childbearing, career break, employment gap, child care.

Employment after childbearing – a survival analysis- CLS working paper 1995/2

Susan Macran, Heather Joshi and Shirley Dex use longitudinal data from two cohorts of women born in 1946 and 1958 to describe the break in employment experienced by women after childbearing. This is reducing in length. The decline in the employment gap, observed for women born in 1958 has largely been confined to those women who delayed their childbearing until their late twenties and early thirties and women who were more highly educated. What seems to be occurring is a polarisation between mothers in the more and the less privileged social groups, in terms of their ability to enter and stay in paid employment once they have responsibility for children. Although mothers at both ends of the social scale have to balance the dual demands of paid and domestic work, older and better educated mothers are more likely to be in higher status occupations, to earn adequate income to pay for childcare and to be better placed to take advantage of any changes in employer provisions for working mothers.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, childbearing, career break, employment gap, child care.

Modelling intergenerational transmission in longitudinal birth cohorts using multilevel methods- CLS working paper 1995/1

This contribution from Dick Wiggins and C.J. Wale presents a multilevel analysis of intergenerational processes. The methodological issues of standardization and selection effects are considered. The results show that age standardization does not work by itself, but age must be introduced in the models as well.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, intergenerational, multilevel modelling, age standardisation, selection effects

Combining employment with childcare – an escape from dependence?- CLS working paper 1994/1

Clare Ward,  Angela Dale and Heather Joshi’s research acknowledges that the availability of childcare is an important factor in enabling motherhood to be combined with paid employment. Their findings use evidence from the fifth sweep of the National Child Development Study to analyse the use of childcare by a cohort of employed women who were aged 33 in 1991. There is a heavy reliance on informal care by women in partnerships and also by lone mothers.  Formal care is most heavily used by women whoseyoungestchildisunderfive,especiallyifthewomanworks full-time. Reported costs of child care represent nearly a quarter of net weekly earnings for mothers with  a  child under five. Formal child care is shown to play an important role in facilitating women’s full-time employment.Full-time employment is the route by which women achieve financial independence from their partner.  Italso incrases the likelihood of contributing to an occupational pension which, in turn, has implications for financial independence in later life. However, the majority of women in this cohort do not take the full-time route.  For these women, low earnings potential and part-time working make paid child care uneconomic and reinforces both their role as minor financial contributors within the family.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, young adult, women’s work, childbearing, gender equality, employment.

Income dependency within couples- CLS working paper 1993/1

Clare Ward, Heather Joshi and Angela Dale challenge the common belief that the generation of women who entered the labour force since the 1970s no longer need social protection as their husbands’ dependants. They show that although improved opportunities have given some women greater economic independence this does not apply in full to all women, and therefore it is important to establish how many women are financially dependent on their partners and the extent of this dependency. This paper sets out to do this for a generation of women leaving school and entering the labour market in the mid-1970s.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, young adult, women’s work, gender equality, employment.

Intra-family transfers over the lifecycle- CLS working paper 1993/2

Hugh Davies and heather Joshi report on exploratory studies of how three main sources of women’s income vary over the life-cycle in contemporary Britain. Two of these income sources are obvious: the labour market and the state. The third possible source is transactions within the family. If couples pool their incomes, and share the proceeds equally, the partner with the lower one will be compensated by half the original difference between them.  As it is normally wives who earns less from the labour market plus the state, they would normally be the benficiaries of income pooling, but of particular interest here are the earnings wives forego in the process of rearing children.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, young adult, women’s work, childbearing, gender equality, employment.

An integrated approach to the design and analysis of the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) and the National Child Development Study (NCDS)- CLS working paper 1992/1

Carol Ekinsmyth, John Bynner, Scott Montgomery and Peter Shepherd outline the possibilities that an integrated framework for longitudinal design and alnsysis will provide for the research community, now that the 1970 birth cohort (BCS70) is permanently housed at the same research establishment as the 1958 cohort (NCDS).

For instance, this enables the collection of similar data for each study and allows the sharing of methodology and new theory and measurement techniques. It is also possible to investigate whether hypotheses supported by one study are supported by the next. The large size and national representativeness of each cohort also enables regional variation to be assessed. In addition, the existence of studies in other countries of comparable age cohorts, such as the US National Longitudinal Study of Youth, extends the scope of comparative analysis by further adding an international dimension.

The working Paper contains sections summmarising for both birth cohorts the data collection; data preparation and availability; published material and funded research projects.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, BCS70, 1970 birth cohort, survey design, fieldwork methodology, integration.

Employment after Childbearing in Post-War Britain: Cohort-Study Evidence on Contrasts within and across Generations- CLS working paper 1991/2

Heather Joshi and Andrew Hinde use both 1946 cohort data (2 generations of NSHD) and supplementary information from mothers of the 1958 cohort (NCDS) to describe and explain the post-war trend of mothers returning to the labour-market after diminishing breaks around childbearing.  Class and regional differences diminish over time, both in simple two-way analyses and in multiple (hazard) regression. Women’s education and occupational attainments retain a positive effect on their chances of entering employment over the two generations. The weakening of class differentials is taken to signal a reduction in the income effect of a shifting labour-supply function. Evidence on continuing job downgrading provides a cautionary note on interpreting increased employment as an improvement in female status.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, childhood, young adult, childbearing, employment, maternity break, social class.

A review of child health in the 1958 cohort: National Child Development Study- CLS working paper 1991/1

Chris Power uses the NCDS childhood sweeps and age 23 follow-up to look at the results of medical examinations and (at age 23 ) self-reported health.  The child’s family background and socio-economic circumstances were used as predictors and covariates, together with assessments of their social development and educational attainment.  This is the first comprehensive account of health findings from birth to age 23.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, childhood, young adult, health, medical examination, self-reported health, social class.

Family disruption in early life and drinking in young adulthood- CLS working paper 1989/1

Valerie Estaugh and Chris Power examine the relationship between family disruption early in life and subsequent drinking in young adulthood in the NCDS age 23 follow-up. Contrary to popular belief, parental loss was not an antecedent to heavy drinking in young adults. This finding was observed within social class of origin groups and when the nature and timing of the disruption were considered separately.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, childhood, young adult, drinking, alcohol, family break-up, divorce, separation.

Childhood morbidity and adult ill-health- CLS working paper 1988/6

Chris Power and Catherine Peckham investigate the relationship between the state of health in childhood and ill health in early adult life. DESIGN–The study using NCDS4 data as otcomes and NCDS1 data on childhood health.  A broad measure of health status was constructed form the available age 7 information.  Of the target population of 17,733 births, 12,537 (76%) were retraced and interviewed at 23.  Children at age 7 were allocated to 13 morbidity groups; 20% of children had reported no ill-health apart from the common infectious diseases, but 10% were included in four or more of the morbidity groups. Children with no reported morbidity retained their health advantage into early adulthood: ratios of observed to expected ill health for four of the five indices examined at age 23 were all significantly below one (self rated health 0.81, asthma and/or wheezy bronchitis 0.63, allergies 0.79, emotional health 0.75). Children with more morbidity at age 7 had higher ratios of ill health in adulthood. A chronic condition in childhood was associated not only with excess morbidity in the short term but also with a poor health rating in early adult life (ratio = 1.38). Morbidity was significantly increased for most of the adulthood indices among children with asthma and/or wheezy bronchitis. However most ill health in young adulthood occurred in study members with a relatively healthy childhood. CONCLUSIONS–Although the state of health in childhood has long term implications, it does not form a substantial contribution to ill health in early adult life.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, childhood, young adult, health.

Occupational expectations and outcomes – some implications for vocational guidance and manpower planning- CLS working paper 1988/5

Judith Glover applies two models of occupational choice, one based on developmental theory emphasising individual choice, and the other based on the ‘opportunity structure’ approach, stressing social and structural constraints on occupational selection.  The outcomes show the strength of association between occupational expectations and outcomes is generally weak, supporting the ‘opportunity structure’ theory, except where the availability of jobs is high.

Keywords: 1958 birth cohort, NCDS, National Child Development Study, young adult, choice of career, social class, SES, class mobility, occupation, job availability, unemployment.