Being NEET in early adulthood has ‘scarring effect’ into midlife

Being out of work and education between ages 16 and 24 has long-term consequences for people’s employment, finances, physical and mental health in midlife, according to new UCL research.

A new report by the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies reveals that generation X experienced worse outcomes at age 51 the longer they had spent NEET (not in employment, education or training) in early adulthood. Those who were persistently NEET between ages 16 and 24 were six times as likely to be out of work in midlife than those who were never NEET in early adulthood. They were also three times as likely to report being in poor health.

This research is of particular importance after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently revealed that almost a million 16-24-year-olds are currently NEET, with national UK rates at their highest level for a decade.

Co-author, Dr Alina Pelikh (UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies) said: “Our new findings suggest that early disengagement from education and work has a long-term scarring effect on people’s employment and finances. Rather than being a temporary disruption, it can lead to sustained labour market detachment, with knock-on effects on people’s physical and mental health.”

About the data

The researchers analysed data from more than 8,000 people born in England, Scotland and Wales who are taking part in the 1970 British Cohort Study. They analysed rich information on participants’ month-by-month histories of education, employment, and training from age 16 onwards, and then examined their outcomes at age 51, including their employment situation, financial wellbeing, and physical and mental health in midlife.

Almost a third (30%) of men and two fifths (40%) of women in this cohort experienced at least one episode of NEET lasting one month or longer between ages 16 and 24. A fifth (21%) of men and women had spent up to two years NEET over this period, and 1% of men and 2% of women had never worked.

Long-term negative impacts

The longer people were out of work and education between ages 16 and 24, the worse their employment prospects and finances, and physical and mental health at age 51. Those who were NEET for the entire eight years were almost six times as likely to be unemployed or inactive in midlife than those who were never NEET in early adulthood (11.5% v 64.5%). They were also three times as likely to report being in poor health (19% v 65%) and around twice as likely to report high levels of psychological distress (16% v 46.5%).

However, even shorter periods of being NEET in early adulthood had long-term negative impacts. For example, men who were NEET for two to three years in early adulthood were three times as likely to be unemployed or inactive again at age 51 compared to those who were never NEET between 16 and 24 (8% v 27%). They were also around twice as likely to report financial difficulties (17% v 36%), poor health (19% v 35%) and psychological distress (12% v 25%) in midlife.

Dr Pelikh explained that these new findings are “particularly concerning” given recent evidence that the share of young people today who are reaching their mid-20s without any work experience is increasing. The ONS recently revealed that of the one million 16-24-year-olds in Britain who are currently NEET, 550,000 have never had a job.

She added: “While only a small minority of the 1970 cohort had never held a job between ages 16 and 24, the severe negative consequences for their later life outcomes are striking. Recent data from the ONS suggests that the most vulnerable groups may now be larger and more disadvantaged today than in earlier cohorts. Taken together, our results suggest that the long-term consequences for more recently born generations who are NEET may be at least as severe – and potentially more severe – than those observed in this study, reinforcing the policy relevance of these findings.”

Co-author, Dr Sam Parsons (UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies) said: “Our new research points to several policy recommendations. Among young people already NEET, support should be targeted towards those with little or no work experience, who appear to be at greatest risk of long-term scarring. But this should be paired with more concerted efforts to identify early those at risk of becoming NEET for longer periods, to provide sustained, personalised support that addresses multiple barriers, including low skills, poor mental health, and limited work experience. Reducing time spent NEET will not only likely be beneficial for individuals, but also has clear implications for productivity, public finances, and long-term economic participation.”

Media coverage of this research

Big Issue – Youth unemployment has a ‘long-term scarring effect’ affecting finances and health decades later

Further information

Read: ‘Long-term consequences of being NEET in early adulthood: initial findings from the 1970 British Cohort Study at Age 51’, by Alina Pelikh, Sam Parsons, and Claire Crawford.

Study methodology

The role of early disadvantage

The figures reported above relate to unadjusted (raw) associations between NEET experiences in early adulthood and outcomes at and up to age 51. A small proportion of these gaps in outcomes between those spending different amounts of time NEET can be explained by earlier experiences of disadvantage. Those who spent longer NEET in early adulthood were more likely to come from lower-income backgrounds, have weaker educational attainment, and experience poorer health earlier in life. But even after accounting for these different early experiences, the pattern remains clear: the longer young people spend NEET, the worse their outcomes tend to be in midlife.

Generational labels

Generation X is typically defined as those born between 1966 and 1980, making this group aged between 46 and 60.