Session: Labour Market Trajectories and Later-Life Outcomes
Employment Stability and Social Origin: Cumulative Advantages in Young Adults’ Homeownership and Financial Asset Accumulation (Ann Berrington, University of Southampton)
Using longitudinal data from Next Steps, we employ sequence and cluster analysis to obtain a typology of STW trajectories (age 16-25). We then estimate its association with homeownership and financial assets at age 32 and examine how social origin moderates this nexus. We find: (i) young adults with high-churn or intermittent economic activities as well as those in prolonged periods of unemployment or inactivity are less likely to have ever owned a home or hold financial assets; (ii) these patterns persist net of income; and (iii) high social origin, proxied by parental service class occupation and parental homeownership, cumulatively propels the asset outcomes of young adults with already “successful” STW transitions, in part through direct transfers. Sustained employment generates a stability premium” toward asset accumulation that is both driven and amplified by social origin.
Early Pathways, Lasting Consequences: Mapping Youth Labour Market Trajectories with Next Steps (Gerda Buchmueller, University of Westminster)
This paper uses Next Steps to characterise youth labour market trajectories from ages 16 to 32 and their associations with later-life outcomes. Histories for 4,001 individuals are analysed using sequence analysis with Dynamic Hamming Distance and PAM clustering. A four-cluster solution distinguishes two education-to-employment pathways (~89%) from groups with persistent inactivity or unemployment (~6%). Both marginal types show strong persistence: each is associated with markedly reduced probability of stable employment a decade later, consistent with NEET scarring. Prior trajectory membership is the strongest correlate of later outcomes; socioeconomic background, GCSE attainment, and aspirations play a limited role once earlier pathways are controlled for. Age-32 data reveal large gaps in income, wellbeing, mental health, and job quality, validating these as evaluation outcome measures.
Social class, differentiated career trajectories and financial and wellbeing outcomes in later life (Shireen Kanji, University of Greenwich)
Exploring the role of social class in ageing of the 1958 cohort, we employ sequence analysis to construct activity histories of occupational social class, unemployment and caring. Applying optimal matching and cluster analysis we identify 6 ideal typical trajectories: Disrupted; Professionals; Office workers; Skilled manual; Managerial-Technical; Upwardly mobile to Managerial-Technical. MNL regression of antecedents shows women are more likely to be office workers or in the disrupted category while men are more likely to be upwardly mobile. Social class at birth predicts pathways even controlling for education, also a significant predictor. Occupational class at birth is still associated with savings and household income at age 62 but not life satisfaction or quality of life, controlling activity trajectory. The disrupted trajectory negatively predicts wellbeing and financial outcomes.
Pensions and economic status among the 1958 birth cohort prior to reaching State Pension age (SPa) (Bozena Wilegoszewska, UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies)
In the UK, extensive legislation introduced in the last 20 years has transformed the pension landscape. Key changes included reforms to the State Pension (SP) eligibility age and structure, the introduction of automatic enrolment into workplace pension schemes, and greater flexibility in access to private pensions. This talk outlines work on a descriptive report produced for the DWP using 1958 National Child Development Study data and covers accumulation and decumulation of financial resources, (self)employment, working in later life, adequacy of retirement savings, and SP awareness and reliance. We examined how retirement outcomes vary based on study members’ current characteristics and their experiences over the lifecourse, illuminating several disadvantaged groups, such as women, the self-employed, and those who spent time out of work due to poor health and caring responsibilities.
